The Electoral Map
For Obama, the Democratic foundation includes 10 states plus the District of Columbia, giving a total of 153 Electoral College votes. Those states are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont. Then there are four more states currently leaning Democratic, with 37 electoral votes.
For McCain, there are 16 states considered safe Republican states based on past voting patterns and recent polls. Those states, which would net 125 electoral votes, include: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.
There are another 8 states leaning Republican with another 69 votes.
There are 194 votes from either leaning or safe Republican states, and 190 from leaning or safe Democrat states. That means there are a dozen states considered a toss-up! Pennsylvania and Michigan are toss-ups as well, but normally Democratic states.
If McCain can take Pennsylvania and Michigan off the Democratic map, that would change the election.